De-escalation Through Conflict: Israel’s Risky Gamble with Hezbollah’s Entrenched Forces
Источник фото: https://www.economist.com
Almost a year has passed since the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah aligned with Hamas to back the October 7 massacre that plunged the Middle East into a deeper state of war. Now, Israel’s military operations in Lebanon signal a shift from defensive postures to proactive strategies. Under the banner of its "Northern Arrows" aerial campaign, Israel's stated goal is to create conditions that would allow its northern residents, who have fled the conflict near the Lebanese border, to safely return home. The airstrikes, however, appear to be the harbinger of a potential ground offensive. On September 25, two reserve brigades of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) were reportedly mobilized, likely preparing for deployment into Lebanese territory.
However, a ground incursion would open Israel to the danger of entanglement in a prolonged and bloody confrontation, as Hezbollah has spent nearly two decades meticulously fortifying its positions for exactly this kind of scenario. Despite this risk, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s approval ratings have seen a boost, a short-term political advantage as the conflict escalates.
On September 17, an unusual and lethal strike hit Hezbollah's ranks. Thousands of pagers belonging to the group's members detonated simultaneously, followed by explosions in communication devices the next day. This series of blasts left around 40 dead and nearly 3,000 injured, many of whom are now disabled. Although Israel did not claim responsibility, U.S. intelligence sources, cited by ABC News, suggested the operation had been in the works for over 15 years, likely orchestrated by Mossad.
The Northern Arrows campaign officially commenced on September 23, targeting Hezbollah’s military strongholds across southern Lebanon, including weapon storage in residential areas. Israel has begun addressing Lebanese civilians directly in Arabic, warning them to flee if weapons or ammunition are stored in their homes. This messaging draws a parallel to Israeli operations in Gaza, where militants have hidden rockets and weapons in civilian homes, leading to devastating consequences during airstrikes.
The parallels to the 2006 Lebanon War are evident, as Hezbollah rockets rain down on Israeli targets with unprecedented frequency, according to IDF statistics. As Hezbollah's arsenal grows more sophisticated, the possibility of a full-blown northern front looms larger.
A Return to a Lebanese Quagmire?
For Israel, the decision to re-engage in a ground offensive in Lebanon holds grim echoes of the past. In 1982, Israeli troops entered Lebanon to push militants away from the border, only to remain mired in the conflict for 18 years. A repeat of that drawn-out scenario, especially with Hezbollah’s extensive preparations for guerrilla warfare, could have catastrophic consequences.
Hezbollah has spent the years since the 2006 war transforming southern Lebanon into a maze of fortified bunkers, traps, and rocket caches. The group has embedded itself into the civilian infrastructure, turning homes and roads into potential death traps for any invading force. Despite these preparations, Israeli airstrikes in September dealt significant damage to Hezbollah positions, though the militant group remains deeply entrenched and capable of prolonging the conflict.
Netanyahu’s government, however, sees the fight as a political necessity. The continuation of the conflict allows Netanyahu to stave off political scrutiny over the failures that led to Hamas’s October 7 attack and avoid the creation of an investigative commission that could implicate his leadership.
The Diplomatic Tightrope
Despite intensifying military efforts, Israel continues to face pressure from international mediators, led by the U.S. and France, to reach a ceasefire. Hezbollah’s demands — including its continued aggression toward Israel — make any diplomatic breakthrough unlikely. Both sides remain entrenched, as any sign of compromise would be viewed as a defeat. In this zero-sum game, neither Israel nor Hezbollah can afford to back down without losing face.
Amid this, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah remains a critical figure, holding the potential to sway the conflict toward either further escalation or a negotiated settlement. While military pressure might force Nasrallah to the negotiating table, the longer the conflict drags on, the more entrenched both sides become.
The Fog of the Future
The path ahead for Israel’s campaign in Lebanon is fraught with uncertainty. On the one hand, military success could push Hezbollah further from Israel’s borders, bringing a semblance of security to the region. On the other hand, Israel risks becoming ensnared in a protracted and deadly conflict that could undermine any gains.
As the fog of war deepens, Netanyahu’s government may continue to use the ongoing conflict as a political shield, while the Lebanese population — already scarred by years of war — faces even greater devastation.
Author: Elena Fedorova
