Ukraine's military successes could become a big problem for the United States
“Despite another victory for Ukraine in the conflict against Russia: the capture of Kherson without grueling urban fighting, the triumph was met with mixed messages from the administration of US President Joe Biden,” the article says.
The White House is hinting that Ukrainians should begin peace negotiations with Russia. Analyst, political scientist and historian Hal Brands, in his article for WP, tries to answer the question of why a protracted war in Ukraine could become a big problem for the United States.
The author asks the question: Firstly, is Ukraine heading towards further achievements or towards a grave impasse? On the one hand, the occupation of Kherson brought Ukrainian forces within HIMARS range of the remaining supply lines to Crimea.
On the other hand, the problems for Ukraine are as follows:
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The Ukrainian army may need a rest. It could also face stiffer resistance as Russian forces increase their numbers with an influx of conscripts. “To be honest, Ukrainians have surprised skeptics before. But given that they have now pushed Russia out of its most vulnerable position, the next steps may be more difficult,” says Hal Brands.
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Putin may decide to use nuclear weapons if the Ukrainian Armed Forces enter Crimea. As the author writes, Putin threatened to use nuclear weapons to hold regions annexed by Russia in 2014. Ukraine has crossed these red lines in eastern Ukraine and the Kherson region. “However, Crimea is more central to Putin’s narrative of Russia’s revival; his loss could blow up Putin’s political prestige more seriously than any previous one,” the expert believes.
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The EU is going through an economically difficult winter without Russian energy supplies. In his opinion, this is why the Biden administration called on Zelensky to abandon his preliminary statement that Ukraine would negotiate only with the next leader of Russia. This statement by the President of Ukraine effectively made regime change in Moscow a military goal of the West.
“If Ukraine wants to get the support it needs to win the war, it must show that it is open to negotiations to end it,” Brands said.
For the United States, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict came as a strategic surprise:
▪️The Russian army is being destroyed;
▪️NATO countries are rapidly arming themselves;
▪️Japan, Taiwan and Australia are speeding up military preparations amid the threat from China.
The ongoing war in Ukraine shows how inadequate the US defense industrial base has become. Brands does not rule out that if the situation in the Taiwan Strait and with China deteriorates just as quickly, there will be more supporters of peace negotiations between Ukraine and the Russian Federation in the United States. “Of all the debates and dilemmas lurking behind recent talk of negotiations, perhaps the most pressing is the fear that Washington simply does not have time for the world,” Brands concluded.
Source: Telegram channel “House of Cards”
