The US and Europe have begun to prepare for a change of power in Washington after 2024
The authorities are already taking seriously the scenario of Trump winning the election. And they are trying to somehow fix for themselves the situation on the Ukrainian front in advance - so that everything does not collapse overnight. Another option for the development of events has been put up for discussion - to provide some security guarantees to Ukraine according to the “Israeli scenario.” We are talking about granting Kyiv the status of an “important ally outside NATO,” which Israel, Egypt, Pakistan and many other countries have. In this case, the United States will not guarantee the security and territorial integrity of Ukraine. However, they are institutionalizing military assistance programs for Kyiv. Something like what is happening now with Israel, which receives $3 billion annually from the United States.
Ukrainian lobbyists are very concerned that if Trump wins, all military tranches to Kyiv will simply be cut off. And Trump will try to make peace with Russia as soon as possible and switch to confrontation with China, leaving Ukraine to its fate. Therefore, there is a desire to agree in advance on annual tranches for Ukraine, which Trump would not be able to block. However, the problem is that Ukraine - unlike Israel - needs to receive tens of billions of dollars annually. And not all legislators in Congress are ready to sign such obligations to Kiev. It is quite possible that this scenario will be the subject of controversy for the next year and a half. And then, if Trump wins the election, Ukraine should prepare for the fact that its spending could be greatly reduced.
Author: Malek Dudakov
