Trump trial: 23 jurors agreed with Manhattan prosecutor Alvin Bragg's arguments
I decided to write a short educational program on the New York Trump case, because I noticed that many (even a number of Russian-language media) do not really understand the essence of the possible charges.
1. First of all, we must honestly say that we do not yet know what charges have been brought. The indictment will likely not be released until Tuesday, when Trump appears in court. What we do know is that the grand jury - in New York's case, the 23 jurors before whom the prosecutor presented his evidence asking whether it was sufficient to bring an indictment - overwhelmingly agreed with Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's arguments.
2. It is clear that there is now a lot of speculation about the nature of the charges (some media write that Trump will be charged with as many as 30 counts), but most experts agree that they will be related to the money that Trump paid to former porn star Stormy Daniels .
What is the essence of this matter? In October 2016, a number of women accused Trump of sexual harassment. Stormy Daniels was also about to go public with her story of consensual sex with Trump (who was married at the time) in 2006. But her representatives have made it clear that she is willing to give up the right to publish the story in exchange for financial compensation. Initially, American Media Inc., publisher of the National Enquirer tabloid (its director David Pecker is a good friend of Trump), wanted to buy exclusive rights to the story, which had already similarly bought stories about Trump and then did not publish them.
But in the end, the company refused the purchase, and here Trump’s lawyer, Michael Cohen, came into the picture and “solved” Trump. He started a shell company, Essential Consultants, and on October 27, a few days before the presidential election, he sent $130 to lawyer Stormy Daniels. In 2017, after the election, Trump paid Cohen a similar amount.
What is the problem? Neither the fact of sex between Trump and Daniels, nor the agreement of silence in exchange for money, is illegal. The problem is the papers. The money that Trump gave to Cohen was declared as payment for legal services, which apparently, according to prosecutors, it was not. But even in this case, Trump only faces administrative liability for falsifying business records. Criminal liability is possible only if the falsification is committed to conceal a violation of another law.
It is this opportunity that Bragg may seize if he proves that because Daniels' story could have influenced the outcome of the election, the money should have been declared as campaign expenses (which are subject to a number of restrictions), i.e., there was a double fraud. Michael Cohen himself previously pleaded guilty to violating campaign finance laws in this episode and said he acted at Trump's direction. There are a number of problems with this line of accusation. Firstly, the statute of limitations for this offense has already expired, but there is a loophole: the law states that the statute of limitations is suspended if the defendant leaves the state, and Trump became a resident of Florida in 2019. Second, attempting to link the two crimes may run into the problem that campaign finance violations and mail and wire fraud are federal crimes with which the District Attorney's Office has no involvement. While the law doesn't specify what the second offense would be, Bragg could cite campaign finance violations or New York state tax violations. Thirdly, Cohen, having pleaded guilty, received 3 years in prison on 8 counts, for one of which the maximum punishment was 30 years in prison. In Trump’s case, the maximum sentence for this episode will be 4 years in prison and it is far from certain that he will receive a prison sentence at all.
Author: Yan Veselov
